By Jamie Hyland, MiningIR
As the global mining industry enters 2026, the central question facing executives, investors, and policymakers is simple but urgent: can metals and mining players still find meaningful growth amid increasing fragmentation, shifting geopolitics, and a slowing energy-transition narrative?
The discussion hits centre stage this December at London Mining Week and Resourcing Tomorrow, where more than 2,000 decision-makers, 150+ mining companies, and over 300 speakers gather to define what growth looks like in this new landscape. With industry leaders such as Frank Giustra, Mark Cutifani, Lara Smith, and Benedikt Sobotka on the program, the week promises real debate on how to navigate the next decade.
On the floor at Resourcing Tomorrow, the Manitoba Government is leaning hard into that narrative. Provincial officials are underscoring that Manitoba is open for business and positioning the province as Canada’s next critical-minerals hub, pointing out that it hosts deposits of roughly 30 of the 34 minerals on Canada’s critical minerals list and has a dedicated strategy prioritising lithium, copper, nickel, and silica. Manitoba’s story ranges from the revamped Sio Silica sand proposal in eastern Manitoba—now back in the environmental review process—to producing and advancing operations like the Tanco lithium–cesium mine, the world’s only operating primary cesium deposit, and new Indigenous-led projects in the Thompson nickel belt that proponents say could help make the province a centre for clean magnesium and nickel in North America. For investors walking the halls in London, Manitoba’s message is clear: if you are looking for a North American critical-minerals jurisdiction with scale, optionality, and political support, put Winnipeg and the North on your map.
According to McKinsey’s Global Materials Perspective 2025, the industry experienced a 6% revenue contraction in 2024, driven by corrections in thermal coal, steel, and battery metals, even as copper, gold, and aluminum saw price strength. Yet profitability remained resilient—metals and mining still produced $700 billion in EBITDA—and long-term demand fundamentals remain largely intact.
But where future growth will come from—and who will capture it—is becoming more complex.
Fragmentation Is the New Norm
Market concentration has shifted dramatically. In 2000, the top ten mining companies held 60% of global market cap. Today, that figure has stabilised at roughly 30%, reflecting a structural fragmentation in the sector. At the same time, geopolitical pressures have intensified, with governments imposing new export controls, nationalising assets, and accelerating domestic downstream integration—trends highlighted across several charts and tables in the report.
African producers are restricting raw concentrate exports, China continues to tighten control over critical minerals, and Western governments—from the US to the EU—are responding with strategic funding and new stockpile programs.
For mining companies, this fragmentation creates both friction and opportunity. Firms must compete in a world of regionalised supply chains, politically sensitive commodities, and rapidly changing incentive regimes.
Demand Remains Resilient—But Different
Despite softer short-term decarbonisation momentum—battery-electric vehicle penetration projections have been revised downward and renewable adoption has plateaued in the US and Europe—the long-term outlook remains strong. More than 50% of incremental materials demand through 2035 will come from energy-transition technologies, led by copper, lithium, nickel, and rare earth elements.
But two newer demand vectors stand out:
1. AI and Data Centres
McKinsey forecasts global data-centre capacity to grow 2.7× by 2030, with data centres alone representing up to 3% of global copper demand by the end of the decade.
2. Defense Spending
NATO Europe may drive 2–8% of total demand growth across aluminum, steel, and copper by 2030—creating high-margin specialty-metal niches that few producers are currently positioned to serve.
These drivers will feature prominently in London as investors increasingly seek exposure to metals linked to power infrastructure, AI deployment, and military modernization.
Supply Constraints Will Define Winners and Losers
The report highlights that while supply ramp-up exceeded expectations for lithium and uranium, copper continues to lag. By 2035, even in a high-case supply scenario, structural gaps remain likely for copper, silver, manganese, and rare earths.
For juniors and mid-tiers, this presents a clear strategic opportunity: projects aligned with these emerging deficits will command premium capital and partnerships.
Expect this theme to dominate conversations at Resourcing Tomorrow—particularly around African copper belts, strategic projects in North America and Europe, and the growing number of Australian developers seeking dual listings.
Productivity & Innovation Are Now Mandatory
One of the strongest messages in the report: 30–50% of mining TSR outperformance has been driven by company decisions—not commodity cycles. Productivity, capital discipline, and innovative operations matter more than ever.
Conclusion: Growth Is There—But Only for Focused Players
Conclusion: Growth is there—but only for focused players. The answer to our question is “yes”: growth exists, but not everywhere, and not for everyone. It will be captured by companies that align themselves with long-term structural deficits in metals such as copper, silver, and rare earths; navigate geopolitical fragmentation intelligently; integrate technology to lift productivity; and position squarely around new demand vectors from AI, defense, and grid expansion, all while securing partnerships across diversified, resilient supply chains. As the industry convenes in London, one message is clear: the next decade of mining belongs to agile producers, strategic investors, and innovators—not incumbents resting on scale alone.
