BloombergNEF has published a forecast of electric vehicle sales over the next two decades to 2040. Their long-term forecast consulted specialists around the world and looks at how the move to EVs will affect oil use, electricity demand and, of perhaps most importance to investors in mining, the demand for battery metals.
Starting from the data point that over 2 million electric vehicles were sold in 2018, Bloomberg’s sales estimate see that figure rise to 10 million by 2025, 28 million in 2030 and 56 million by 2040. That would account for 57% of all passenger vehicle sales, making up over 30% of all the passenger vehicles on the road.
Bloomberg points to the key factor in the increase of EVs being the drop in battery prices – anticipating price-parity between internal combustion vehicles and EVs by the mid 2020s, though they expect there will be wide variations in different markets around the world.
This regional variation could be very pronounced. China is forecast to lead on EVs in all segments according to Bloomberg due to their aggressive policy-supported push of electric vehicles.
Europe is forecast to pull ahead of the US as the second largest market for EVs in the 2020s, whilst India and other emerging markets are seen to adopt EVs at a much slower rate.
The report summary is available from BloombergNEF here – https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/whilst the full report is available for Bloomberg clients.