A look at the current gold market

June 26, 2019

By Louis James at https://independentspeculator.com

Last week I wrote:
“Whatever the wording—and whether it happens this week or next month—the reality is that easier policy is bearish for the US dollar and bullish for gold ….
“In short, the odds for gold to break out in the near term—perhaps even this week—look better to me now than they have for years ….
“Are you ready?”

It seems I got that right.

But note that I didn’t pretend to know the future. The reason I was so bullish is that either way things went, it would be good for gold.
And that’s important because the same is true going forward into July—only more so.
But should you believe me?
Aren’t gold-bug pundits always saying gold is about to go higher?

According to them, isn’t the US dollar always about to go into hyperinflation? Or isn’t central bank buying going to take gold prices to the moon? Or maybe it’s the Russians and the Chinese working to dethrone the dollar?

It certainly seems to me that the flow of such claims is nonstop. I can understand why intelligent investors would be suspicious of yet another claim that gold is heading higher.

So I have to point out—because no one else is likely to do it for me—that as bullish as I am on gold, I’m not one of those who always says gold is about to go vertical.

And I can prove it.

Remember all the hype earlier this year about the Basel 3 agreement going in to effect on March 29? That was the day central banks agreed to start treating gold like money again. More than one pundit said that gold prices would likely soar as a result.

But I cautioned my readers not to drink the Basel 3 Kool-Aid.

Looking back over my writing this year, it seems to me that I’ve written more about uranium than gold. That may well hold true for the rest of the year, depending on what Trump decides to do about America’s dependence on foreign uranium. His decision is due by July 14, so we won’t have long to wait on that trade either.

But this week, I want to say again that I truly do see asymmetrical risk and reward in gold stocks—skewed to the upside.

Here’s my thinking:

  • Yes, there is risk. Gold stocks have ticked up with gold’s breakout and would fall back if the gold rally reverses. No question.
  • But not much risk. Gold probably will fluctuate over the next weeks, but in a world in which investors are convinced the Fed will cut rates and the dollar will drop—not to mention how close to war the US is with Iran—it’s hard to see gold prices falling by much anytime soon.
  • The upside is huge. Experience, fundamentals, and technicals all tell me that gold’s breakout so far is just a baby chick’s beak poking out of its eggshell. Once the gold rally is full fledged, it should soar to game-changing heights. And shares in the better gold companies will multiply those gains. This is the stuff fortunes are made of.
  • Buying opportunity just ahead. The best part is that it would be normal and healthy for gold to correct and consolidate before going higher. This would bring terrific buying opportunities in even the best stocks right before the bigger part of the rally. If you feel like you missed an opportunity this week, there’s a good chance you’re not too late at all.

I haven’t seen a setup this bullish since 2009, when it was obvious that the crisis would drive gold much higher.
Could I be wrong?
Of course I could. Neither I nor anyone else can predict the future. But…
I do know that if we’re in the early stages of a 2009–2011 type gold rally, you will not want to miss it.
If you agree with me, you’re welcome to go it alone, but I encourage you not to miss the opportunity.
If you want to see how I’m betting on what comes next with my own money, of course, you’re welcome to subscribe to The Independent Speculator.
But if you’re not quite sure yet…
I invite you to bring your questions to a live Q&A session I’m planning for 12 p.m. EDT, next Saturday, June 29, on YouTube.
All you have to do to participate is click on this link:


You’ll have to create a YouTube account if you don’t have one already, but that’s easy. You can set a reminder using the reminder button in the lower left of the video area. You can even post questions in advance.

It should be great fun, and I’ll do my best to help you out.

I hope to “see” you there.

In Closing

I keep saying I have no crystal ball, and I don’t know the future. No one does. But I’m more excited about my projections for gold in the near term than I have been about any investment since 2009.`

That’s not to say nothing can go wrong… but the impact of speculating with me if I’m right could be life-changing.

It was for me in 2009–2011.

And I hope it will be for you, going forward.

Caveat emptor,

By Louis James at https://independentspeculator.com

Louis James, LLC is here to inform, educate, and enable action for an elite group of savvy investors. Our goal is to achieve extraordinary gains for ourselves and those willing and able to take the risks and apply the discipline needed to speculate successfully.

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